Poverbs:22:3. “The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty….” Being adequately prepared and investing in preventive measures are crucial components of judicious planning and good management. Predictive sciences (physical, chemical and biological) as well as the arts (e.g. econometrics) are routinely based on the available information/ data and the knowledge of how different data components interact to define a “cause-effect” phenomenon, forming a basis for emergency preparedness.
In the next few weeks or months there will be high probability of hazard occurrences posed by potential extreme weather events including rainfall generated floods as a result of the current strong El-Nino signal and other climatic processes in some parts of the globe. In the recent past, a significant number of countries has experienced extensive damages caused by extreme weather events. The high cost of these extreme events are a wake-up call for the responsible authorities to review the available data or information and determine if there is sufficient preparedness to reduce damages that could occur due to future floods and other extreme events. The complexity of these extreme events and their implications on socio-economic responses call for flood mitigation programs set-up based on multi-faceted approach; a participatory approach involving different government department, private sector and various stake holders is crucial to establishing effective flood mitigation programs.
One final but critical thought on the role of climate change; Flood mitigation infrastructure (e.g. culverts, dams, temporary traplows and ditches) that store, divert and/ or convey flood waters (or stormwater) are routinely designed and sized based on several considerations (or design parameters) chief of which is the frequency (or occurrence) of specific extreme rainfall events with given intensities. Recent climate change studies indicate there will be potential for increased frequency of extreme weather events due to global warming, a consideration that should also be factored in the design standards and practices.
The feeling or notion that natural events are unpredictable and infrequent can lead to laxity on the part of responsible authorities to put in place adequate protection measures against future extreme events; a scenario where, unfortunately, governments and emergency preparedness and response teams are left to adopt a reactive response when disasters pose an imminent threat to human life and critical infrastructure. This reactive approach is usually untimely and very costly. The blame culprit is inadequate budget allocations to fund major capital projects, where flood mitigation programs are pushed to the backstage and not given a priority. However, the long-term cost-benefit of investing in both infrastructure and effective emergency coordination and response cannot be over-emphasized. It is better to be prepared (even if the predicted event doesn’t occur) than to be caught unawares and unprepared.
Phillip Mutulu is a Senior Consulting Hydrologist and Flood Mitigation Specialist and former Director of Flood Forecasting, Coordination and Response- Manitoba-Canada.
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