Some Thought on June 2013 Alberta Flood

With antecedent high soil moisture levels prior to June 18th, 2013 and heavy high intensity rainfall thereafter, Alberta, Canada, experienced a catastrophic flooding. Several areas including the Upper Red Deer, Bow River, and Highwood River watersheds, suffered damaging impact from this extreme weather event. States of local emergency were declared together with the activation of emergency operations centres. With unprecedented rising water levels numerous communities were placed under evacuation orders as a result.

You will notice how large scale weather systems played out in the short video below to aggravate the flooding problem. As the low pressure moisture bearing systems encroached into and strengthened in southwestern Alberta, high pressure cells established themselves across north to northweatern Alberta. These high pressure systems blocked movement of the low pressure systems thus rendering them quasi-stationary. As a result there was a build-up of storm rainfall in portions of southwestern Alberta leading to significant runoff formation and flooding.



As we learn from this extreme event, we will be better prepared to deal with future extreme flooding events. The success of future flood mitigation efforts will depend to a large extent on research & development, innovation, wise political decisions, and active participation of public and all related scientific, engineering and socio-economic disciplines.

Flood Mitigation: Natural measures to prevent floods valuable but not 'a silver bullet'

Credit: University of Bristol
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Natural measures to manage flooding from rivers can play a valuable role in flood prevention, but a lack of monitoring means their true potential remains unclear, researchers say.
Such measures, including river restoration and tree planting, aim to restore processes that have been affected by human activities such as farming, land management and house-building.
Natural flood management is an area of increasing interest for policy makers, but its implementation can present a complex balancing act between the needs of different groups, including the public, farmers and land owners. Mixed messages about the efficacy and scalability of natural flood management measures add to the uncertainty surrounding their benefits.
Now a team of experts, led by Dr Simon Dadson of the University of Oxford, and including Professor Paul Bates from the University of Bristol's School of Geographical Sciences, has compiled the evidence on natural flood management, in order to better inform policy decisions and show where crucial gaps in knowledge lie.
Published today in the Proceedings of the Royal Society A, the restatement clarifies the scientific evidence available from a variety of sources, ranging from field data to model projections and expert opinion.
Dr Dadson said: "Flooding is an extremely costly natural hazard in the UK, and we expect it to increase in the future as climate change leads to more extremes in our weather. The period between 1960 and 1990 was relatively flood-poor compared with what we've seen since and with what we are likely to see in the future.
"What we've found is that when it comes to natural flood management, there are some interventions for which there is very strong evidence, but these tend to be in small-scale river catchments. One of the main problems decision-makers face is that differences between catchments make it difficult to transfer evidence from one location to the other – and we don't yet know whether the effects in small catchments can be extrapolated to larger ones."
The authors say natural measures have proved useful at preventing flooding after minor rainstorms, and can be a worthwhile component of a larger package of flood prevention measures. For measures such as tree planting that aim to change the way rainfall runs off the land, the evidence of the impact on flooding is mixed. Meanwhile, measures to restore natural floodplains by "making room for the river", for example by removing flood walls and other obstacles, have been shown to reduce flood water levels.
Dr Dadson added: "There are always going to be some extreme floods, like we saw after Storm Desmond, that are simply overwhelming.
"Natural flood management can help if implemented well in carefully chosen locations, and it can bring important benefits to landscapes and wildlife, but it's not a silver bullet for the problem of flooding."
The restatement calls for increased monitoring and measurement of flood management impacts, with evidence gathered within a comprehensive framework.
Dr Dadson added: "Our message to Defra and the Environment Agency is that they need to establish more systematic large-scale surveys and monitoring programmes, and feed natural flood management into planning at the catchment scale.
"It's also really important that catchment-based schemes that have been instigated by communities and local wildlife or river trusts are monitored and evaluated so that the right lessons can be learned for the future."
Professor Paul Bates commented: "Whilst natural catchment management seems a very attractive option for managing flood risk, robust evidence for its effectiveness for anything other than small floods in small catchments is not yet there."

More information: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. hdl.handle.net/1983/677ca43e-055b-4c64-b7cd-fb10771f94c9

Climate Change and Floods

-Climate change turning minor floods into major floods.

-Drought Floods Climate Change and Pacific Weather

-Heavy Flooding and Global Warming: Is There a Connection?

-Louisiana Floods Directly Linked to Climate Change

-Global Warming and Floods

Flood News Around the Globe

Denham Springs LA Flood
Aapocalyptic-scenes in Peru loods

Manitoba 2011 Flood Web Links.

Photos: Manitoba 2011 Flood
Early Stormy Weather: October 2010
Flood Aid Sought for Cottage Owners:
November 2010 Press Release.
Early Observations in 2010 Press Release
January 2011 Press Release:
Selkirk Journal January 2011
Selkirk Journal March 2011 Release
Manitoba 2011 Flood Wikipedia
Manitoba 2011 Flood Review Task Force Report
Assiniboine River Flooding Wikipidea
Manitoba 2011 Presentation by Manitoba Water Stewardship
Flood cost estimates in November 2012
Catastrophic Flooding: Manitoba’s Perennial Challenge
Presentation at EES
Presentation at ESAA

Elnino Climate Change Floods and Infrastructure

El-Nino and Infrastructure

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2015

Poverbs:22:3. “The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty….” Being adequately prepared and investing in preventive measures are crucial components of judicious planning and good management. Predictive sciences (physical, chemical and biological) as well as the arts (e.g. econometrics) are routinely based on the available information/ data and the knowledge of how different data components interact to define a “cause-effect” phenomenon, forming a basis for emergency preparedness.
In the next few weeks or months there will be high probability of hazard occurrences posed by potential extreme weather events including rainfall generated floods as a result of the current strong El-Nino signal and other climatic processes in some parts of the globe. In the recent past, a significant number of countries has experienced extensive damages caused by extreme weather events. The high cost of these extreme events are a wake-up call for the responsible authorities to review the available data or information and determine if there is sufficient preparedness to reduce damages that could occur due to future floods and other extreme events. The complexity of these extreme events and their implications on socio-economic responses call for flood mitigation programs set-up based on multi-faceted approach; a participatory approach involving different government department, private sector and various stake holders is crucial to establishing effective flood mitigation programs.
One final but critical thought on the role of climate change; Flood mitigation infrastructure (e.g. culverts, dams, temporary traplows and ditches) that store, divert and/ or convey flood waters (or stormwater) are routinely designed and sized based on several considerations (or design parameters) chief of which is the frequency (or occurrence) of specific extreme rainfall events with given intensities. Recent climate change studies indicate there will be potential for increased frequency of extreme weather events due to global warming, a consideration that should also be factored in the design standards and practices.
The feeling or notion that natural events are unpredictable and infrequent can lead to laxity on the part of responsible authorities to put in place adequate protection measures against future extreme events; a scenario where, unfortunately, governments and emergency preparedness and response teams are left to adopt a reactive response when disasters pose an imminent threat to human life and critical infrastructure. This reactive approach is usually untimely and very costly. The blame culprit is inadequate budget allocations to fund major capital projects, where flood mitigation programs are pushed to the backstage and not given a priority. However, the long-term cost-benefit of investing in both infrastructure and effective emergency coordination and response cannot be over-emphasized. It is better to be prepared (even if the predicted event doesn’t occur) than to be caught unawares and unprepared.

Phillip Mutulu is a Senior Consulting Hydrologist and Flood Mitigation Specialist and former Director of Flood Forecasting, Coordination and Response- Manitoba-Canada.

Thoughts on Enino and Infrastructure.